As recession fears rise, Bernstein is suggesting investors look to gold and gold mining stocks to reduce risk.
The firm’s global quantitative trading strategy group on Monday sent a note titled “a strong case for holding gold.”
“We show that from current equity valuations and from similar points in previous cycles gold and equities give more similar returns … [to] risk assets such as equities,” Bernstein said.
“A material shift in geopolitical risk and a near-record build up in government debt make other potential risk-free assets more questionable and also bring a temptation to create inflation, thereby further enhancing the case for gold,” the note added.
Bernstein is tracking two key measures, both of which are at levels not seen since World War II: global government debt and central bank buying of gold. The former “creates a temptation to manufacture inflation,” Bernstein said. The latter is a “trend that is likely to continue for as long as the US share of global GDP continues to decline,” the firm said.